Work Packages

 

 

Work package 1: Improving seasonal long-range forecast skill of risks for hazardous weather and climate events.

 

Extreme weather events such as storms, heat waves, floods and droughts can have a devastating impact. Climate change will increase the likelihood of these events, but because they are so infrequent, they are very difficult to predict. This work package explores specialised statistics such as extreme value theory to improve our predictions of these events. It also explores whether the probability of extreme events, such as polar lows, can be related to larger scale meteorological events, such as marine cold air outbreaks.


Work package 2: Lower latitude drivers of Arctic changes.

 

Warming in the Arctic is affected by warm ocean waters travelling from lower latitudes, but the mechanisms are not well understood. This work package will use data from international ocean observing systems, from underwater gliders to Argo profiling floats, that measure the salinity and flow of the water. These data will be used to improve simulations of how heat and freshwater transfer occurs from subpolar gyres to the Arctic regions. This work package will also identify gaps in our current ocean observing systems, and provide feedback on the volumes of data required for accurate modelling.  

    


Work package 3: Linkages of Arctic climate changes to lower latitudes.

 

The warming Arctic causes changes in the ocean and atmosphere that can influence the weather and climate of lower latitudes. This work package will investigate the potential effects of these changes, through state-of-the-art ocean, atmosphere or coupled models. Atmospheric models will study the interplay between Arctic warming, the polar vortex, the jet stream and atmospheric planetary-waves. Ocean models will study the release of freshwater from melting sea ice and the effect on ocean circulation, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).


Work package 4: Enhancing the capacity of seasonal-to-decadal prediction in the Arctic and over the Northern Hemisphere.

 

A key aim of many climate models is to be able to predict future climate. This work package involves making assessments of the processes underlying the linkages between the Arctic and lower latitudes, and their representation in current prediction systems. The aim is to develop more advanced statistical bias correction and calibration techniques to enhance predictability of climate and extreme weather events in the Northern hemisphere.


Work package 5: Developing and valuing climate and information services.

 

Often the outputs from climate models are difficult to understand and put to use for individuals and small businesses. This work package will work with stakeholders to codesign methods of translating outputs from climate models into useable products. These will be highlighted through a series of five specific case studies, covering sectors as diverse as tourism, mortality, shipping, fisheries and resource extraction. This work package will also bring together the lessons learned from each case study to identify the need for future climate services.


Work Package Details

WP

WP title

Lead Scientist

Lead Institution

Co-lead

Abbr.

Full Name

1

Improving seasonal long range forecast skill of risks for hazardous weather and climate events

Johanna Baehr

UHAM

University Hamburg

Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen /Danish Meterorological Institute-NBI-Unires

2

Lower latitude drivers of Arctic changes

Karin M. H. Larsen

HAV

Faroe Marine Research Institute

Gerard McCarthy/Maynooth University

3

Linkages of Arctic climate changes to lower latitudes

Yongqi Gao

NERSC

Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center

Guillaume Gastineau/CNRS

4

Enhancing the capacity of seasonal-to-decadal predictions in the Arctic and over the Northern Hemisphere

Daniela Matei

MPI

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Noel Keenlyside/University Bergen

5

Developing and Valuing Climate Services and Information Services

Mark R. Payne

DTU

Technical University of Denmark

Kathrin Stephen/ Institute For Advanced Sustainability Studies 

6

Clustering for blue growth

Steffen M. Olsen

DMI

Danish Meterorological Institute

Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen /Danish Meterorological Institute-NBI-Unires

7

Management

Steffen M. Olsen

DMI

Danish Meterorological Institute

Daniela Matei/Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

8

Communication, Dissemination, Engagement and Exploitation

Hannah Grist

SRSL

SAMS Research Services

Pernille Martiny Modvig /Climate-KIC Nordics

 

 


Interaction between the work packages

 

 

 


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