Extreme weather risks to maritime activities

Partners involved

Opens internal link in current windowUni Research, DNV GL


The open waters of the Nordic Seas are one of the main breeding grounds of polar lows, intense polar mesocyclones engendering strong winds and intense snowfall that have caused numerous fatal shipwrecks. While polarlow predictability is poor on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (s2s) time scale (10–90 days), the environments in which they form, (marine cold air outbreaks), may be predictable on those time scales: such extreme weather may therefore be predictable, at least in a probabilistic context.

Co-design and co-production

The aim of this task is to create maps that will be tailored to high-level end-users and thus providing practical application of medium-to-long-range prediction of marine cold air outbreaks and polar lows, to limit risks for humans, business activities and the environment in the Arctic.


  • Martin King, Uni Research
  • Øivin Aarnes, DNV GL



Dissemination materials

All available in open access in Opens external link in new windowZenodo Blue-Action community




The main results of this case study can be found in these reports:

Baseline data selected by this case study

Initiates file downloadVersion March 2019

Baseline data selected (March 2019)

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