Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic

Partners involved

IASS, IMEMO, Foresight intelligence 


The Arctic is facing unprecedented environmental change. As the temperature warms and sea ice retreats, new economic opportunities are also emerging as natural resources become more readily accessible. Different commodities are being developed in different locations in the Arctic. Each of these locations is characterised by unique environmental and social contexts, and the socio-economic and environmental outcomes for each development pathway will be unique. In this case study, we focus on the emerging opportunities and associated risks of development, and the potential social, economic and environmental impacts of energy resource development in the Arctic. Our work provides valuable insight into the effects of resource management and climate change on the Arctic environment and the communities who live there, as well as into the interdependencies between the changing Arctic and stakeholders in non-Arctic regions (especially Europe).

Co-design and co-production

This case study analyses and evaluates the outcomes of numerous scenarios for resource management and environmental change in the Russian Arctic. Together with stakeholder groups (local communities, NGOs, business actors), we co-develop a suite of scenarios describing possible futures for the Yamal-Nenets region which incorporate cutting edge climate predictions with environmental, social and cultural concerns, economic opportunities, and political and legal developments. By building narratives around sustainable resource management in the Yamal-Nenets region and evaluating socio-economic, climate, and environmental impacts, our scenarios  facilitate regional and international decision-making processes which reflect the diverse interests, hopes, concerns, rights, and obligations of everyone involved.


  • Kathrin Stephen, IASS
  • Vilena Valeeva, IASS
  • Elena Nikitina, IMEMO
  • Johannes Gabriel, Foresight Intelligence

Dissemination materials

All available in open access in Opens external link in new windowZenodo Blue-Action community


The main results of this case study can be found in these reports:

  • Arctic stakeholder Map (D5.20) available in Zenodo
  • Environment scanning workshop and report Nr. 1, Blue‐Action Case Study Nr. 5 (D5.21). This deliverable is confidential, but a short summary is available in Zenodo
  • Environment scanning workshop and report Nr. 2 (D5.22).  available in Zenodo
  • Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the engagement of stakeholders (D5.23) available in Zenodo

Baseline data selected by this case study

Initiates file downloadVersion March 2019

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